Daily Market Report
EUR/USD - 09:00 (GMT+3)
Establishing a potential higher base off 1.5693/96, 22/23 May lows while consolidating recent sharp gains off 1.5595, 06 May base breakout. Further rise sets focus towards 1.5847, Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.6020/1.5285 fall next although possible overbought daily studies warn stalling risk ahead. A reversal under 1.5630 low, 21 May would weaken.
Res: 1.5802, 1.5814, 1.5835, 1.5847
Sup: 1.5741, 1.5688, 1.5681, 1.5658
GBP/USD – 09:00 (GMT+3)
May abide by candlestick theory and extend current series of rising lows off 1.9361, 14 May higher base for another day but this formation is expected to break up by Tuesday/Wednesday. In the event of a recoil below last Friday's 1.9755 low, hourly chart shows an ominous double top which projects setback to 1.9659. However, a resilient 1.9720/55 support suggests continuation to 1.9880/1.9910.
Res: 1.9836, 1.9852, 1.9880, 1.9898
Sup: 1.9785, 1.9750, 1.9737, 1.9720
Nymex Oil (July) – 09:00(GMT+3)
Thursday's minor intraday double top at 135.09, new high staged consoldiative weakness to 130.07. The rebound over 133.19, 22 May intraday high/near 61.8% retrace reached 133.71 Friday before easing. With daily techs still overbought, a downside break of 130.07 opens 128.60. Above 135.09 offers relief for 137.77, equality of 109.59/126.71 from 120.65.
Res: 133.05, 133.87, 134.40, 135.09
Sup: 130.90, 130.47, 130.07, 129.55
USD/CHF – 09:00 (GMT+3)
Has pushed marginally lower last Friday at 1.0216 to probe the 1.0245/50 region, 38.2% of 0.9630/1.0625 upleg. Sustained break of the former would set focus towards 1.0132/28, approx 50% retrace region next. Oversold conditions however may otherwise delay for now and regaining the pivotal 1.0390/92 suggests renewed strength instead.
Res: 1.0265, 1.0303, 1.0343, 1.0355
Sup: 1.0216, 1.0195, 1.0145, 1.0132
USD/JPY – 09:00 (GMT+3)
Remains short-term range-bound following last Friday's deep pullback off 104.38 high, 22 May as the pair is trapped between 55/100-day MAs. Meantime, a swing low is sought above 102.73, 22 May low and key 102.57, 12 May while a potential continuation pattern may unfold before strength. Loss there and 102.00, near daily Senkou Span however weakens.
Res: 103.69, 103.85, 104.26, 104.38
Sup: 103.05, 102.95, 102.73, 102.49
USD/CAD – 09:00 (GMT+3)
Firming off last Wednesday's decline at 0.9819 as developing rising lows buoy immediate recovery effort. Last Friday's spike at 0.9835 may mark a swing low failure with immediate focus now set towards last Wednesday's 0.9928 high. A break there would shift focus higher, retracing the down leg from 1.0179, 08 May. Until then, below 0.9819 opens 0.9798 next, 13 Mar.
Res: 0.9902, 0.9928, 0.9960, 0.9979
Sup: 0.9835, 0.9816, 0.9798, 0.9740
EUR/JPY – 09:00 (GMT+3)
Shies off 163.90 lower high, 28 April following last Friday's setback via an inside-day range. Meantime, price actions off 161.27 low, 16 May reveal a suspected rising wedge to warn of upside exhaustion while further rise now hinges on 162.26 low, 22 May. Sustained break over 163.90 however highlights 10-month triangle top near 164.98 high, 23 April.
Res: 163.17, 163.58, 163.90, 163.17
Sup: 162.51, 162.20, 162.00, 161.59
EUR/CHF - 09:00 (GMT+3)
Extended recovery from 1.5340 on 17 Mar, lowest since Jun 05, to reach 1.6347 on 05 May. Losses from there to 1.6068 on 09 May were followed by an additional recovery, reaching 1.6377 on Monday, before completing a short-term top on Tuesday, when 1.6267/75 was lost. 1.6164 was met ahead of latest bounce, this will need to clear 1.6270/77 to avert immediate risk of fresh slide to 1.6068.
Res: 1.6175, 1.6208, 1.6230, 1.6248
Sup: 1.6132, 1.6097, 1.6068, 1.6095
EUR/GBP – 09:00 (GMT+3)
Retraced majority of 0.8098/0.7766 decline, 16 April/02 May, accelerating to a peak of 0.8034 last Wednesdays before reversing. Thursday's failure to build a higher low near former resist at 0.7980/81 ended hopes of a return to the all-time high at 0.8098, subsequent loss of Tuesday's 0.7944 higher low confirmed a reversal with 0.7926 so far met. Risk of lower top by 0.7981/93 risking drop to 0.7873/98.
Res: 0.7971, 0.7981, 0.7998, 0.8012
Sup: 0.7936, 0.7923, 0.7915, 0.7898
EUR/AUD – 09:00 (GMT+3)
Formed a double bottom at 1.5475/95, 26 Jul 07/01 Nov 07 lows, leading to a move higher, peaking at 1.7430, 2008 high, posted 31 Mar, following a false break higher out of a convergent bear channel. Break below daily trendline support in Apr has thus far retraced close to 76.4% of the prior 1.5925/1.7430 rise. False break higher dominates with short-term bounce to 1.6635 reversing lower. Next target stands at 1.6115.
Res: 1.6500, 1.6535, 1.6635, 1.6670
Sup: 1.6335, 1.6265, 1.6185, 1.6115
EUR/CAD – 09:00 (GMT+3)
Found support at 1.4410, 2008 low, posted 08 Feb, after breaking through a platform at 1.4665/55. A steady uptrend then broke back above this platform peaking at 1.5075, 22 Feb high, before a higher low supported for the next leg up, reaching 1.6340, 2008 high, posted 31 Mar. Latest setback has found support in the 38.2% retrace area of the 1.4150/1.6340 rise. Below 1.5360 targets 1.5200.
Res: 1.5695, 1.5780, 1.5825, 1.5875
Sup: 1.5440 1.5360, 1.5360, 1.5310
GBP/JPY – 09:00 (GMT+3)
Extended upleg from mid-April's 198.00/10 double bottom to reach 209.00 on 18 Apr/02 May. A sharp sell off was then seen to 199.85 on 09 May before a higher base formed. 204.95 was seen on 14 May, ahead of a consolidation that has formed a positive wedge. Over 204.95 sets up a test on 206.90, guards key 207.60. Above latter would complete a multi-month base. 204.95 buoys.
Res: 206.25, 206.50, 206.90, 207.15
Sup: 204.00, 203.50, 203.00, 202.65
GBP/CHF – 09:00 (GMT+3)
Accelerated losses from 2.1845, 14 Feb top, to 1.9385, a 12-year low. Initial recovery to 2.0330 on 24/25 Mar was followed by higher low at 1.9580 on 10 Apr ahead of recovery extension to 2.0970. Steady weakness followed, this reached 2.0240 on 09 May, ahead of a correction to 2.0595 last Thu/Fri. A top has now formed, latest loss of 2.0240 opens 2.0080/2.0120 extension.
Res: 2.0440, 2.0510, 2.0550, 2.0575
Sup: 2.0240, 2.0180, 2.0120, 2.0080
GBP/AUD – 09:00 (GMT+3)
Bounced from the lower support of a multi year bearish trend channel reaching 2.1985, 13 Feb high, from where selling pressure led to a break out of the channel to 2.0950, 28 Feb low. Bounce from there peaked at 2.2125, before the current bout of weakness which has made a fresh annual low at 2.0320. Break above 2.0730 reduces immediate risk of fresh lows.
Res: 2.0740, 2.0815, 2.0860, 2.0885
Sup: 2.0580, 2.0405, 2.0360, 2.0320
NZD/USD – 09:00 (GMT+3)
Edged past last Thursday's 0.7896 high to a fresh recovery high at 0.7902 before easing to Thursday's 0.7823 low. Prolonged consolidation near the latter could result in a downside break and leave a lopsided double top in the wake of decline towards 0.7757/60. Breakout of 0.7937, 06 May lower top is needed to annul threat by 14-day RSI negative reversal which forecasts 0.7542 region.
Res: 0.7890, 0.7902, 0.7915, 0.7937
Sup: 0.7820, 0.7800, 0.7786, 0.7774
AUD/USD – 09:00 (GMT+3)
Retreated from the 24-year high at 0.9541 on 23 Apr to reach 0.9275 on 02 May, ahead of a steady rebound. This was initially capped at 0.9507 on 07 May, with subsequent slightly higher low at 0.9291 last Thursday, having set up a break of 0.9541 and the May 1984 peak at 0.9648, reaching 0.9655 so far. Dip now seen, scope exists for a higher low to set up an extension to 0.9683/0.9724.
Res: 0.9648, 0.9655, 0.9683, 0.9724
Sup: 0.9580, 0.9554, 0.9534, 0.9554
Gold – 09:00 (GMT+3)
Weakness off Thursday's 935.30 high staged a bearish dark cloud cover candle pattern with losses reaching 914.55 Friday before stabilizing. Bulls seek the 928.75 intraday high to trigger a 935.30 test, over which opens 937.90, 50% of 1030.80/845.00 then 952.60. Below 914.55 enables bears to resume for 902.40, 20 May low.
Res: 928.75, 935.30, 937.90, 946.40
Sup: 921.20, 918.20, 914.55, 913.35
DOW (Cash) – 09:00 (GMT+3)
Bears reclaimed the 12715 pivot low to confirm a double top at 13132/13136, 02/19 May. The latest loss of 12512, near equality of 13136/12781 from 12862 stages a deeper setback towards the 12387 former high, 15 April ahead of the 12269 reaction low, 15 April. Only recovery strength above Thursday's 12660 high stabilizes for 12862, 21 May high.
Res: 12549, 12584, 12622, 12669
Sup: 12387, 12371, 12309, 12269
S&P Future (Jun) – 15:00 (GMT+3)
A bearish resolve to the recent 1388.50/1399.50 range consolidation staged a break beneath the 1382.00, 09 May higher low to defer the two month uptrend from the 1253.10 contract low. Further weakness reclaimed 1379.00, 01 May low to open 1368.10, 24 April low. Over 1395.50 offers relief to last Thursday's 1399.50 minor lower high, with scope to 1401.00/1404.50 above.
Res: 1381.50, 1385.30, 1389.70, 1395.50
Sup: 1381.50, 1385.30, 1389.70, 1395.50
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good fa ith, but are subject to change w ithout notice. No liabil ity accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document
Good trading
EEC team